be compared to one person in the elderly category. Now the ratio increases more than five times. An increase in old-age dependency ratio probably most dramatizes the imminently occurring impact of population ageing.
D. Elderly/children R~tio
As mentioned avove, one interesting indicator for showing the change in age-structure is the elderly/children ratio, which is the number of the elderly (population aged 65 and over) divided by the number of children (population under 15), multiplied by 100. In 1930-1950 the ratio was as low as 13 that is to say, there were relatively few elderly persons in proportion to children. However, the elderly/children ratio has been increasing,and by 1986 it reached approximately 50 per 100 children. According to the projections prepared recently by the Institute of Population Problems (Institute of Population Problems, 1992), the ratio will increase further and before the year 2000 (more exactly, in 1997) it will reach 100 (See also Figure 5). Astonishing as it may seem, by the year 2030 it will soar to 184 - that is to say, the elderly will outnumber children by more than 80 percent.
There are few countries whose elderly/children ratio is more than 100 at the present time. Sweden, the Federal Republic of Germany (before the unification) and a few others show elderly/children ratios being close to 100 in 1995. Around 1986, when the elderly/children ratio was only 50,the Japanese started a kind of over-reacting to the rapidity of population ageing, as if their population has already turned grey. Hence, it is difficult to imagine how people would react to the situation where the population ageing is really in full swing. Japan is now entering an entirely new phase of demographic evolution, in which the elderly will outnumber children.
E. Rapidity of Population Ageing
As already mentioned, in Japan the term "population ageing" is not shibboleth but a household word, and there have been so much debates and speculations which have been going on. Why so? Some reasons may be attributable to the high educational standard in which Japanese people might exhibit their concerted interest in social changes, but it seems largely attributable to substantial seasons. That is the rapidity and swiftness of population ageing in Japan.
